Where the market is wrong on Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Septemvri Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv meet Septemvri Sofia in the First League regular season - 2 at Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv. The model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% LOK, 34% draw, 29% SEP.
The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 63% against 53%. Attacking output favors Lokomotiv Plovdiv on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 30%, over 2.5 goals around 23%. Draw no bet leans Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 56%; double chance reads Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw 71%, Septemvri Sofia or draw 63%.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 6 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Septemvri Sofia, L 0-1 @ Ludogorets, W 2-0 @ Rilski Sportist, W 2-0 v Arda Kardzhali.
Septemvri Sofia are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv, D 1-1 v Arda Kardzhali, L 0-1 @ Ludogorets, W 2-1 v Hebar 1918.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 Septemvri Sofia.
The market prices LOK at 52% implied. Our number sits apart on Septemvri Sofia: a 9.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
