Hereford v Shrewsbury

Hereford meet Shrewsbury in the Friendlies Clubs club friendlies. The model makes Shrewsbury the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 33% HER, 31% draw, 36% SHR.

The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 50%. Attacking output favors Hereford on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.0 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 51%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Shrewsbury at 52%; double chance reads Hereford or draw 64%, Shrewsbury or draw 67%.

Hereford arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Solihull Moors, L 0-2 @ Bishop's Cleeve, D 1-1 @ Hereford Pegasus, D 2-2 v Peterborough Sports.

Shrewsbury are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 v West Brom, W 1-0 v Everton U21, W 4-0 v Isle of Man, D 0-0 @ Radcliffe.

Shrewsbury hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2021: Hereford 1-2 Shrewsbury.

The market prices HER at 19% implied. Our number sits apart on Hereford: a 14.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.