Where the market is wrong on Inter v Napoli
Inter meet Napoli in the Serie A regular season - 3.
The baseline ratings are close, 1684 to 1638, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Inter, 78% against 68%. Attacking output favors Inter on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 62%, over 2.5 goals around 60%. Draw no bet leans Inter at 53%; double chance reads Inter or draw 67%, Napoli or draw 63%.
Inter arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 9 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Cagliari, W 4-1 v Monza, W 1-0 v Real Betis, W 2-1 @ Juventus.
Napoli are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 12 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Como, W 2-0 @ Genoa, W 6-2 v Aris Thessalonikis, D 1-1 v Celta Vigo.
Inter hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Inter 2-2 Napoli.
The market prices INT at 56% implied. Our number sits apart on Napoli: a 15.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
