Where the market is wrong on Napoli v Como
Napoli meet Como in the Serie A regular season - 2 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples.
The baseline ratings are close, 1638 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 68% against 68%. Attacking output favors Como on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 57%, over 2.5 goals around 54%. Draw no bet leans Napoli at 51%; double chance reads Napoli or draw 65%, Como or draw 65%.
Napoli arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 12 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Como, W 2-0 @ Genoa, W 6-2 v Aris Thessalonikis, D 1-1 v Celta Vigo.
Como are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Napoli, D 1-1 @ Udinese, D 0-0 @ Liverpool, D 1-1 @ Arsenal.
The market prices NAP at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on Como: a 3.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
