Where the market is wrong on Fiorentina v Frosinone
Fiorentina meet Frosinone in the Serie A regular season - 2 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence.
Frosinone rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1673 to 1553. Recent form leans Frosinone, 75% against 58%. Attacking output favors Frosinone on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 52%, over 2.5 goals around 60%. Draw no bet leans Frosinone at 64%; double chance reads Fiorentina or draw 54%, Frosinone or draw 74%.
Fiorentina arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Frosinone, L 0-4 @ AS Roma, W 4-1 v Benevento, D 1-1 v Deportivo La Coruna.
Frosinone are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 10 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Fiorentina, L 0-1 v Juventus, W 4-1 v Juve Stabia, L 1-2 v Lazio.
The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece with 3 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Fiorentina 0-3 Frosinone.
The market prices FIO at 57% implied. Our number sits apart on Frosinone: a 26.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
