Where the market is wrong on AC Milan v Venezia
AC Milan meet Venezia in the Serie A regular season - 2 at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan.
Venezia rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1638 to 1512. Recent form leans Venezia, 70% against 50%. Attacking output favors Venezia on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 54%, over 2.5 goals around 66%. Draw no bet leans Venezia at 66%; double chance reads AC Milan or draw 52%, Venezia or draw 75%.
AC Milan arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Venezia, W 2-1 @ Torino, W 4-2 @ Manchester United, L 0-3 @ Chelsea.
Venezia are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 8 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ AC Milan, L 0-2 v Lecce, W 3-2 v Modena, D 2-2 @ Stade Brestois 29.
The market prices AC at 65% implied. Our number sits apart on Venezia: a 33.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
