Where the market is wrong on Tigres FC v Leones FC
Tigres FC meet Leones FC in the Primera B clausura - 1 at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, undefined. The model makes Tigres FC the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 36% TIG, 35% draw, 29% LEO.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 38% against 35%. Attacking output favors Tigres FC on expected goals, 0.8 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 25%, over 2.5 goals around 17%. Draw no bet leans Tigres FC at 56%; double chance reads Tigres FC or draw 71%, Leones FC or draw 64%.
Tigres FC arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Leones FC, L 0-2 @ Atletico Nacional, D 2-2 @ Internacional Palmira, L 1-2 v Envigado.
Leones FC are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Tigres FC, D 1-1 v Independiente Medellin, D 0-0 @ Cucuta, W 2-0 v Orsomarso.
The market prices TIG at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on Leones FC: a 8.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
