Where the market is wrong on Alianza Atletico v Sporting Cristal
Alianza Atletico meet Sporting Cristal in the Primera División clausura - 6 at Estadio Campeones del 36, Sullana.
The baseline ratings are close, 1546 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Alianza Atletico, 55% against 45%. Attacking output favors Alianza Atletico on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 56%, over 2.5 goals around 52%. Draw no bet leans Alianza Atletico at 53%; double chance reads Alianza Atletico or draw 67%, Sporting Cristal or draw 63%.
Alianza Atletico arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v UTC Cajamarca, W 3-1 v Sporting Cristal, D 1-1 @ ADT, W 1-0 v Cienciano.
Sporting Cristal are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Alianza Atletico, W 4-1 v Sport Huancayo, D 1-1 @ Universitario, W 2-0 v Juan Pablo II College.
Sporting Cristal hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Alianza Atletico 3-1 Sporting Cristal.
The market prices ALI at 29% implied. Our number sits apart on Alianza Atletico: a 7.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 71 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
