St Johnstone produced a commanding 4-0 victory over Forfar Athletic in a club friendly, a result that aligned closely with the pre-match forecast. The Lemeister model had given the away side a 60 per cent win probability, projecting a 3-0 scoreline; the actual margin of four goals reflected a performance that was even more emphatic than the data suggested. The model's projected away win of 3-0 was one goal short of the eventual margin, indicating St Johnstone exceeded expectations in their attacking output, particularly in a first half where they scored three times.
The match was effectively decided inside the opening 45 minutes. St Johnstone scored three times before the interval, with goals in the 20th, 24th and 43rd minutes. S. Stanton opened the scoring midway through the first half, striking in the 20th minute to break the deadlock. Just four minutes later, K. Fotheringham doubled the lead, seizing upon the disorganisation in the Forfar defence to make it 2-0. J. Fowler added a third shortly before the break in the 43rd minute, leaving the home side with a mountain to climb at halftime. The only goal of the second half arrived in the 65th minute, scored by T. Steven, completing the 4-0 rout. All four goals were normal goals, with no penalties or own goals recorded, and no assists were registered for any of the strikes, suggesting the goals came from individual efforts or defensive errors rather than created chances from teammates.
With no match statistics or player ratings provided in the data, this report cannot analyse possession, shots, expected goals, passing accuracy, or corner counts. The lack of cards suggests the match was played in a disciplined spirit, a common feature of pre-season fixtures where intensity is often moderated. The absence of substitutes indicates that both teams either used only their starting line-ups or that changes were not recorded in the data, which is not unusual for friendly matches where squad rotation may not be formalised. Consequently, the analysis of how the game was won rests almost entirely on the timing and frequency of the goals, combined with the pre-match expectation from the Lemeister model.
Despite the absence of underlying figures, the narrative is clear: St Johnstone were ruthlessly efficient in the first half, scoring three goals in a 23-minute spell that dismantled any resistance from Forfar Athletic. The quick double from Stanton and Fotheringham in the 20th and 24th minutes set the tone, forcing the home side onto the back foot and destabilising their defensive structure. Fowler’s strike just before half-time in the 43rd minute was the decisive blow, effectively ending the contest as a competitive fixture. Steven’s goal 20 minutes into the second half merely confirmed what had been evident since the interval: the away side were in complete control. The home side, facing a team that began as heavy favourites with a 60 per cent win probability from the Lemeister model, were simply unable to cope with the intensity of the away side’s attacking pressure.
The result stands as a comprehensive win for St Johnstone in a pre-season friendly. For Forfar Athletic, the 4-0 defeat serves as a tough learning experience ahead of the competitive season. The Lemeister model had projected a 3-0 away win with a 60 per cent probability, meaning the actual outcome was within the expected range but pushed to the upper limit of the forecast. St Johnstone will take confidence from this performance as they continue their preparation, while Forfar must regroup and address the defensive frailties that were so ruthlessly exploited across the 90 minutes. The clean sheet for the away side and the absence of cards further underscore a controlled and professional display from the favourites.
