Where the market is wrong on Santos v UCV
Santos meet UCV in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana round of 32 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Santos. The model makes Santos the most likely outcome at 48%, with the full read 48% SAN, 28% draw, 25% UCV.
Santos rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1541 to 1420. Recent form leans Santos, 58% against 38%. Attacking output favors Santos on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 57%, over 2.5 goals around 69%. Draw no bet leans Santos at 66%; double chance reads Santos or draw 75%, UCV or draw 52%.
Santos arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 13 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Chapecoense-sc, W 4-1 @ UCV, L 1-2 @ Botafogo, W 3-0 v União São João.
UCV are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 v Santos, L 2-3 v Portuguesa FC, W 1-0 @ Libertad Asuncion, L 1-2 @ Puerto Cabello.
Santos hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: UCV 1-4 Santos.
The market prices SAN at 75% implied. Our number sits apart on UCV: a 16.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
