Izarra v Pamplona: the model read
Izarra meet Pamplona in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 final. The model makes Pamplona the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 29% IZA, 31% draw, 41% PAM.
The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1684, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Pamplona, 78% against 65%. Attacking output favors Pamplona on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 47%, over 2.5 goals around 46%. Draw no bet leans Pamplona at 58%; double chance reads Izarra or draw 59%, Pamplona or draw 71%.
Izarra arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 10 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 @ Pamplona, D 1-1 v Pamplona, W 4-0 v Subiza, L 0-1 @ Subiza.
Pamplona are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Real Murcia II, L 1-2 @ Real Murcia II, W 5-1 v Izarra, D 1-1 @ Izarra.
Pamplona hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Pamplona 5-1 Izarra.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
