Noroeste v Comercial: the model read
Noroeste meet Comercial in the Copa Paulista group stage - 6 at Estadio Alfredo de Castilho, Bauru.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 53%. Attacking output favors Noroeste on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.2 per match.
Noroeste arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Primavera SP, D 2-2 @ Primavera SP, W 4-3 v Comercial, D 1-1 @ União São João.
Comercial are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ São José EC, D 0-0 v São José EC, L 0-2 @ EC São Bernardo, W 2-0 v EC São Bernardo.
Noroeste hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Noroeste 4-3 Comercial.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
