Guarnizo v Tropezón: the model read
Guarnizo meet Tropezón in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 semi-finals. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 34% GUA, 36% draw, 30% TRO.
The baseline ratings are close, 1638 to 1581, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Guarnizo, 70% against 60%. Attacking output favors Guarnizo on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 21%, over 2.5 goals around 13%. Draw no bet leans Guarnizo at 53%; double chance reads Guarnizo or draw 70%, Tropezón or draw 66%.
Guarnizo arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Tropezón, D 0-0 v Tropezón, D 1-1 @ Bezana, D 2-2 v Torina.
Tropezón are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 5 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Arnedo, W 1-0 v Arnedo, W 1-0 @ Laredo, D 0-0 v Laredo.
The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Tropezón 3-0 Guarnizo.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
