Izarra v Subiza: the model read
Izarra meet Subiza in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 semi-finals. The model makes Izarra the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% IZA, 31% draw, 30% SUB.
The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Izarra, 65% against 50%. Attacking output favors Izarra on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 44%, over 2.5 goals around 40%. Draw no bet leans Izarra at 57%; double chance reads Izarra or draw 70%, Subiza or draw 61%.
Izarra arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 10 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 @ Pamplona, D 1-1 v Pamplona, W 4-0 v Subiza, L 0-1 @ Subiza.
Subiza are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 @ Izarra, W 1-0 v Izarra, D 0-0 @ Beti Kozkor, L 1-2 @ Peña Sport.
The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 1 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Izarra 4-0 Subiza.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
