Oyonesa v Varea: the model read
Oyonesa meet Varea in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 semi-finals. The model makes Varea the most likely outcome at 33%, with the full read 33% OYO, 33% draw, 33% VAR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1592, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 63% against 63%. Attacking output favors Oyonesa on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 35%, over 2.5 goals around 26%. Draw no bet leans Varea at 50%; double chance reads Oyonesa or draw 67%, Varea or draw 67%.
Oyonesa arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Arnedo, D 0-0 v Arnedo, W 2-0 @ Varea, D 0-0 v Varea.
Varea are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 1 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Oyonesa, D 0-0 @ Oyonesa, L 0-1 v Oyonesa, W 1-0 @ Pradejón.
Oyonesa hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Varea 0-2 Oyonesa.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
