Tarancón v Manchego: the model read
Tarancón meet Manchego in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 semi-finals. The model makes Tarancón the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 38% TAR, 34% draw, 28% MAN.
Tarancón rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1523. Recent form leans Tarancón, 70% against 53%. Attacking output favors Tarancón on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 27%, over 2.5 goals around 21%. Draw no bet leans Tarancón at 58%; double chance reads Tarancón or draw 72%, Manchego or draw 62%.
Tarancón arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 9 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Manchego, D 0-0 @ Manchego, W 3-0 v Cazalegas, W 3-0 @ Huracán Balazote.
Manchego are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 3 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Albacete II, W 2-0 v Albacete II, W 1-0 @ Tarancón, D 0-0 v Tarancón.
The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Tarancón 0-1 Manchego.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
