Toledo v Albacete II: the model read
Toledo meet Albacete II in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 semi-finals. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 29% TOL, 38% draw, 33% ALB.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1604, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 65%. Attacking output favors Albacete II on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 16%, over 2.5 goals around 8%. Draw no bet leans Albacete II at 53%; double chance reads Toledo or draw 67%, Albacete II or draw 71%.
Toledo arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Albacete II, D 0-0 @ Albacete II, L 0-1 @ Pedroñeras, L 0-2 v Calvo Sotelo.
Albacete II are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 6 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Leioa, L 0-1 @ Leioa, W 3-0 v Manchego, L 0-2 @ Manchego.
Albacete II hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Toledo 0-1 Albacete II.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
