Los Angeles FC v Toluca: the model read
Los Angeles FC meet Toluca in the CONCACAF Champions League semi-finals at BMO Stadium, Los Angeles. The model makes Los Angeles FC the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% LOS, 29% draw, 32% TOL.
Los Angeles FC rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1581 to 1454. Recent form leans Los Angeles FC, 60% against 43%. Attacking output favors Los Angeles FC on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 67%, over 2.5 goals around 67%. Draw no bet leans Los Angeles FC at 55%; double chance reads Los Angeles FC or draw 68%, Toluca or draw 61%.
Los Angeles FC arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 14 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 v Sporting Kansas City, W 3-1 v Real Salt Lake, W 3-0 @ Los Angeles Galaxy, W 3-0 v El Salvador.
Toluca are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Cruz Azul, L 1-2 v U.N.A.M. - Pumas, W 2-0 @ Guadalajara Chivas, D 3-3 @ Atlante FC.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Toluca 4-0 Los Angeles FC.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
