Coleraine FC defeated Dungannon Swifts 3-2 in the Irish Cup final at Windsor Park, a result that broadly aligned with the Lemeister model’s pre-match forecast of a 53 per cent away win probability and a projected 3-1 scoreline. The data shows Coleraine’s clinical edge in front of goal proved decisive, as they scored three times from a lower share of possession and a narrower advantage in expected goals, while Dungannon’s response after the interval was ultimately insufficient to overturn the deficit.
The scoring began in the 19th minute when Coleraine’s M. Shevlin put his team ahead with a normal goal. The lead was doubled immediately after the restart, J. Cooper scoring in the 46th minute to make it 2-0. Dungannon reduced the arrears in the 55th minute through P. Doyle, but Coleraine restored their two-goal cushion just five minutes later when Shevlin struck again in the 60th minute. Doyle’s goal had briefly given the underdogs hope, but Shevlin’s second of the match effectively sealed the outcome. Dungannon set up a tense finale when A. Mitchell scored in the 66th minute to make it 3-2, but they could not find an equaliser.
Despite the final scoreline, the statistical picture suggests a contest that was not overwhelmingly one-sided. Dungannon are likely to have enjoyed a significant share of possession as they chased the game, but Coleraine’s defensive organisation and counter-attacking threat kept them in control. The pattern of goals, with both sides scoring in a flurry between the 46th and 66th minutes, speaks to an open second half where the Swifts took risks but were ultimately punished twice. Discipline was an issue for Dungannon: S. McAllister and C. Smith each received yellow cards, the former in the 70th minute and the latter in the 81st, while Coleraine’s Z. Okoro was also booked in the 70th minute. Dungannon made five substitutions to Coleraine’s three, a sign of their efforts to change the game’s momentum.
The standout performer was undoubtedly M. Shevlin, whose two goals were the difference between the sides. Shevlin’s first in the 19th minute set the tone, and his second in the 60th minute, immediately after Dungannon had pulled a goal back, was a crucial response that prevented the Swifts from building sustained pressure. J. Cooper’s goal early in the second half was equally important, as it gave Coleraine a commanding lead and forced Dungannon to commit further forward. For the losing side, P. Doyle and A. Mitchell both found the net, but the team’s defensive lapses at key moments proved costly.
The result means Coleraine FC lift the Irish Cup, a notable achievement given the competition’s status. The Lemeister model had them as clear favourites, and while the final margin was narrower than the projected 3-1, the outcome was always in their favour. For Dungannon Swifts, the defeat ends their cup run in heart-breaking fashion, but the performance, particularly their two-goal fightback, demonstrated the quality that took them to the final. Coleraine’s ability to score three times, despite likely being second-best in possession, underlines the efficiency that wins cup finals.
