Sao Tome and Principe v Ethiopia: the model read
Sao Tome and Principe meet Ethiopia in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification preliminary round. The model makes Ethiopia the most likely outcome at 48%, with the full read 22% SAO, 30% draw, 48% ETH.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1447, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Ethiopia, 38% against 13%. Attacking output favors Ethiopia on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.5 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 33%, over 2.5 goals around 49%. Draw no bet leans Ethiopia at 68%; double chance reads Sao Tome and Principe or draw 52%, Ethiopia or draw 78%.
Sao Tome and Principe arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 1 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Ethiopia, L 0-3 v Ethiopia, W 1-0 v Malawi, L 0-6 v Tunisia.
Ethiopia are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 7 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Malawi, W 1-0 v Malawi, W 1-0 v Sao Tome and Principe, W 3-0 @ Sao Tome and Principe.
Ethiopia hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ethiopia 1-0 Sao Tome and Principe.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
