AO Itabaiana secured third place in the Sergipano with a 1-0 victory over América SE at the Estadio Etelvino Mendonca, a result that went against the pre-match forecast. The Lemeister model had given América SE a 39% chance of winning, making the visitors slight favourites, while the home side were assigned a 26% probability of victory, with the draw rated at 35%. The model's projected scoreline of 0-1 to the away team proved inaccurate, as a single second-half goal from Pedro Igor was enough to decide the contest.
The decisive moment arrived in the 83rd minute, when Pedro Igor found the net to break the deadlock. The goal was not assisted and came from open play, leaving the América SE defence and goalkeeper exposed. The timing was critical, arriving late in the half when the match appeared to be drifting towards extra time. Pedro Igor will take the plaudits for the decisive intervention, but the build-up play that created the opportunity is not detailed in the data. The goal proved to be the only shot on target that mattered, as neither side recorded any other goals, and the match ended with a single strike separating the teams.
The disciplinary record tells a story of a tense, closely fought contest. AO Itabaiana accumulated three yellow cards before the goal, with Gustavo Crecci cautioned in the 26th minute, Dione in the 52nd, and Luan Silva in the 54th. América SE also received three yellows, with Renato booked in the 39th minute, and two further bookings in the 84th and 85th minutes. The discipline deteriorated further after the goal; an AO Itabaiana player received a red card in the 89th minute, forcing the home side to play out the closing stages with ten men. An América SE player was also shown a yellow card in the 96th minute, as frustration mounted. The total of seven yellow cards and one red card reflects the physical and emotional intensity of the third-place playoff.
Without detailed possession, shot, expected goals, passing or corner statistics in the data, the analysis must focus on the single goal and the extensive disciplinary record. The five substitutions made by the home side and four by the visitors indicate that both coaches sought to influence the game from the bench, but neither was able to unlock the opposition defence before Pedro Igor's intervention. The lack of data on shots on target or expected goals suggests that clear-cut chances were at a premium, and that both defences were largely successful in keeping the opposition at bay until the late breakthrough.
In terms of individual performances, the available player ratings are not provided in the data, so the analysis of standout performers is limited to the nameable players involved in the scoring and bookings. Pedro Igor will be the hero for the decisive goal, while the defensive unit, including Dione and Luan Silva, managed to keep a clean sheet despite the late red card. Gustavo Crecci and Renato were both cautioned in the first half, but there is no further detail on their overall contribution. The lack of rating data means that no player can be singled out for exceptional performance beyond the goal scorer.
The result means AO Itabaiana finish the Sergipano in third place, while América SE end their campaign in fourth. The narrow margin of victory, decided by the single goal, reflects the even nature of the contest, with neither side able to dominate. The Lemeister model's projection of a 1-0 away win did not materialise, with the home side instead claiming the bragging rights in this local derby. For AO Itabaiana, the victory provides a positive conclusion to their season, securing a podium finish in the state championship. For América SE, the defeat means they miss out on the top three, ending their campaign with a fourth-placed finish.
