Mixto v Luverdense: the model read
Mixto meet Luverdense in the Matogrossense final. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 29% MIX, 37% draw, 35% LUV.
Luverdense rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1523 to 1400. Recent form leans Luverdense, 55% against 40%. Attacking output favors Luverdense on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 19%, over 2.5 goals around 11%. Draw no bet leans Luverdense at 55%; double chance reads Mixto or draw 65%, Luverdense or draw 71%.
Mixto arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Gama, L 1-2 v Gama, D 1-1 v Ceilândia, D 2-2 @ União Rondonópolis.
Luverdense are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 @ ABC, D 0-0 v ABC, D 0-0 @ Guaporé, W 1-0 v Guaporé.
The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece with 5 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Luverdense 0-0 Mixto.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
