Kahibah v Belmont Swansea

Kahibah meet Belmont Swansea in the Northern NSW NPL regular season - 20 at Fred Wright Oval, Newcastle. The model makes Belmont Swansea the most likely outcome at 47%, with the full read 28% KAH, 25% draw, 47% BEL.

Belmont Swansea rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1569 to 1400. Recent form leans Belmont Swansea, 60% against 32%. Attacking output favors Belmont Swansea on expected goals, 2.3 to 1.6 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 87%, over 2.5 goals around 95%. Draw no bet leans Belmont Swansea at 63%; double chance reads Kahibah or draw 53%, Belmont Swansea or draw 72%.

Kahibah arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 9 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Belmont Swansea, L 2-5 @ Weston Bears, L 2-3 @ Valentine, L 1-2 @ Edgeworth Eagles.

Belmont Swansea are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 9 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Kahibah, L 2-5 @ Hamilton Olympic, W 3-1 @ Charlestown City Blues, W 1-0 v Broadmeadow Magic.

Belmont Swansea hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Kahibah 3-1 Belmont Swansea.

The market prices KAH at 26% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.