Tianjin Teda turned a narrow advantage into a comprehensive 3-0 victory over Sichuan Jiuniu, a result that the underlying numbers suggest was more convincing than the scoreline alone implies. The Lemeister model had projected a close contest, giving the hosts a 39% win probability and a 2-1 projected scoreline. Instead, Tianjin Teda's efficiency in front of goal proved decisive: they scored three times from an expected goals total of 1.47, while Sichuan Jiuniu failed to convert any of their 0.59 xG. The visitors dominated possession with 64% and completed 362 of 438 passes at an 83% accuracy rate, but they could not turn control into clear-cut chances.
The opening goal arrived in the 26th minute when Guilherme Schettine found the net, with Ba Dun providing the assist. It was a critical moment in a first half that otherwise saw Tianjin Teda absorb pressure. Sichuan Jiuniu had 64% of the ball before the interval and forced three saves from the home goalkeeper, but their five shots on target across the match were matched by Tianjin Teda's defensive organisation. The hosts' goalkeeper made three saves, while their own goalkeeper faced only three attempts on target all evening.
The match remained finely balanced until the closing stages, when Tianjin Teda delivered a devastating double blow. In the 90th minute, Xadas scored, assisted by A. Quiles. Moments later, Ji Shengpan added a third, again with A. Quiles providing the assist. Quiles, who ended the match with a rating of 7.6, was instrumental in those decisive moments. Ji Shengpan was the standout performer with an 8.0 rating, while Dun Ba (7.3) and the defensive pair of Yan Bingliang and Fan Yang (both 7.2) also contributed solid performances. Ming-Him Sun also earned a 7.2 rating.
The statistical profile of the match paints a clear picture of a game won by clinical finishing. Despite having only 36% possession and completing just 183 of 254 passes at 72% accuracy, Tianjin Teda managed 14 total shots. Only four of those were on target, but they converted three. By contrast, Sichuan Jiuniu had 13 shots but managed only three on target, with an xG of 0.59 reflecting their inability to create high-quality opportunities. The visitors did earn seven corners to Tianjin Teda's one, but they could not capitalise. The home side's six shots from inside the box matched the visitors' five, but the difference was in the finishing.
Discipline was an issue for both sides. Tianjin Teda's Xie Weijun received a yellow card in the 44th minute, and Bruno Xadas was booked in the 92nd minute. Sichuan Jiuniu collected three yellow cards: Gabriel Xavier in the 46th minute, Deabeas Owusu-Sekyere in the 64th, and Ruibao Hu in the 87th. Both sides committed 14 fouls each, and there were nine substitutions in total.
For Tianjin Teda, this result represents a significant home victory, demonstrating their ability to punish opponents who dominate possession but fail to convert. The margin of victory was greater than the Lemeister model's projection of a one-goal win, underlining the efficiency of their attack in the final moments. For Sichuan Jiuniu, the loss will be a frustrating one: they had the ball and the passing accuracy, but they lacked the cutting edge to turn their dominance into goals. With five substitute options used by the home side and four by the visitors, both managers sought to influence proceedings, but the introduction of A. Quiles, who provided two assists in stoppage time, was the decisive tactical intervention.
