Ancona v Pistoiese: the model read
Ancona meet Pistoiese in the Coppa Italia Serie D final at Stadio del Conero, Ancona. The model makes Pistoiese the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 27% ANC, 32% draw, 41% PIS.
The baseline ratings are close, 1615 to 1719, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Pistoiese, 80% against 65%. Attacking output favors Pistoiese on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 39%, over 2.5 goals around 37%. Draw no bet leans Pistoiese at 60%; double chance reads Ancona or draw 59%, Pistoiese or draw 73%.
Ancona arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Notaresco, D 1-1 v Notaresco, D 0-0 @ L'Aquila, W 3-0 v Sammaurese.
Pistoiese are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Piacenza, W 5-0 v Cittadella Vis Modena, D 1-1 @ Desenzano Calvina, L 0-1 v Coriano.
Pistoiese hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ancona 0-1 Pistoiese.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
