Port Melbourne v Northcote City

Port Melbourne meet Northcote City in the Victoria NPL 2 regular season - 22. The model makes Northcote City the most likely outcome at 59%, with the full read 16% POR, 25% draw, 59% NOR.

Northcote City rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1615 to 1400. Recent form leans Northcote City, 65% against 25%. Attacking output favors Northcote City on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.6 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 29%, over 2.5 goals around 66%. Draw no bet leans Northcote City at 79%; double chance reads Port Melbourne or draw 41%, Northcote City or draw 84%.

Port Melbourne arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 3 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Northcote City, W 1-0 @ Melbourne Srbija, L 0-5 v North Sunshine Eagles, D 1-1 @ North Geelong Warriors.

Northcote City are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 10 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Port Melbourne, D 3-3 v Manningham United Blues, L 0-1 v Melbourne Knights, L 2-3 v Melbourne Srbija.

Northcote City hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Port Melbourne 1-3 Northcote City.

The market prices POR at 8% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 10.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.