Where the market is wrong on Heidelberg United v Bentleigh Greens
Heidelberg United meet Bentleigh Greens in the Victoria NPL regular season - 26 at Olympic Park Stadium, Melbourne.
Heidelberg United rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1535 to 1400. Recent form leans Heidelberg United, 55% against 28%. Attacking output favors Heidelberg United on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 51%, over 2.5 goals around 75%. Draw no bet leans Heidelberg United at 73%; double chance reads Heidelberg United or draw 80%, Bentleigh Greens or draw 46%.
Heidelberg United arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Bentleigh Greens, W 2-1 @ South Melbourne, L 4-5 v Hume City, D 0-0 @ North Sunshine Eagles.
Bentleigh Greens are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Heidelberg United, W 6-2 @ Melbourne City II, D 1-1 @ St. Albans Saints, D 0-0 v Oakleigh Cannons.
Heidelberg United hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Heidelberg United 2-0 Bentleigh Greens.
The market prices HEI at 69% implied. Our number sits apart on Bentleigh Greens: a 8.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
