Where the market is wrong on Parnu JK Vaprus U21 v JK Tabasalu
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 meet JK Tabasalu in the Esiliiga B regular season - 25.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 45%. Attacking output favors Parnu JK Vaprus U21 on expected goals, 3.0 to 1.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 93%, over 2.5 goals around 97%. Draw no bet leans Parnu JK Vaprus U21 at 57%; double chance reads Parnu JK Vaprus U21 or draw 68%, JK Tabasalu or draw 57%.
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 12 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 6-0 v JK Tabasalu, D 2-2 v Tulevik, L 0-1 @ Tartu Kalev, D 2-2 @ Luunja.
JK Tabasalu are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 4 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 0-6 @ Parnu JK Vaprus U21, D 2-2 @ Johvi Phoenix, D 1-1 v Tallinna Kalev II, L 0-3 @ Levadia U19.
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 6-0 JK Tabasalu.
The market prices PAR at 63% implied. Our number sits apart on JK Tabasalu: a 12.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
