Hapoel Beer Sheva advanced to the State Cup final with a 3-2 extra-time victory over Bnei Yehuda at Toto Turner Stadium, a result that the Lemeister model had viewed as an upset. The model gave Beer Sheva only a 34% chance of winning, with Bnei Yehuda the narrow pre-match favourites at 37%. The numbers tell a story of two distinct phases: an explosive start from Beer Sheva that built a commanding lead, followed by a remarkable Bnei Yehuda fightback that forced extra time, before G. Mizrahi's 101st-minute strike settled the tie.
The opening 12 minutes defined the early narrative. J. East opened the scoring in the 9th minute from an R. Levy assist, and Levy then doubled the lead three minutes later with an unassisted goal of his own. That rapid double strike gave Beer Sheva a two-goal cushion, and the data suggests it was built on efficiency rather than dominance at that stage. Without full possession or shot statistics available, the early scoring rate, two goals from two shots on target, if the pattern held, points to clinical finishing from the named attackers.
For much of normal time, Beer Sheva's defensive organisation held firm. Bnei Yehuda, despite being the pre-match favourites according to the model, struggled to generate consistent pressure. Their frustration was evident when V. Stina received a yellow card in the 33rd minute, a booking that highlighted their difficulty in breaking down the opposition. The model's projection of Bnei Yehuda scoring two away goals appeared unlikely as the match entered its final stages.
Then came the extraordinary conclusion to normal time. N. Gissin pulled one back in the 90th minute with an unassisted goal, and A. Ratner equalised in the same minute, also without an assist. Two stoppage-time strikes in rapid succession transformed the contest, forcing extra time. That late surge suggests Bnei Yehuda increased their attacking intensity when the match seemed lost, though the data does not reveal how the chances were created or what tactical changes may have occurred.
Extra time saw Beer Sheva regain control. G. Mizrahi scored the winning goal in the 101st minute without an assist, and S. Elias was booked in the 113th minute as the match became increasingly physical. Both sides used all six of their permitted substitutions, a reflection of the intense demands after 120 minutes. The yellow card tally, one each, indicates a contest that was competitive without descending into indiscipline.
Without the full statistical breakdown, the narrative is shaped by the goal timeline and the model's pre-match read. Beer Sheva's three goals against a side the model favoured suggests they outperformed expectations in key moments. Bnei Yehuda's two stoppage-time goals demonstrated resilience but ultimately fell short. The result means Beer Sheva progress to the State Cup final, having shown both an early attacking edge and the composure to withstand a dramatic late collapse. For Bnei Yehuda, the agony of coming so close to a remarkable turnaround will linger, but their late fightback underlined their competitive spirit. Beer Sheva will now await the winner of the other semi-final as they pursue silverware in the competition.
