Where the market is wrong on Avai v Sport Recife
Avai meet Sport Recife in the Serie B regular season - 23 at Estádio da Ressacada, Florianópolis.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Sport Recife, 57% against 45%. Attacking output favors Sport Recife on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 44%, over 2.5 goals around 39%. Draw no bet leans Sport Recife at 55%; double chance reads Avai or draw 63%, Sport Recife or draw 69%.
Avai arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Ponte Preta, W 2-1 v Sport Recife, W 2-1 @ Operario-PR, L 0-1 v CRB.
Sport Recife are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Avai, W 2-1 v Londrina, W 1-0 @ Vila Nova, D 1-1 v Cuiaba.
Avai hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Avai 2-1 Sport Recife.
The market prices AVA at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on Sport Recife: a 9.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 74 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output