Libertad overturned a pre-match expectation weighted in favour of Aucas by the Lemeister model, which gave the visitors a 39 per cent win probability and projected an away win, to claim a 3-2 victory in this Liga Pro Regular Season round 12 encounter. The result was forged by a clinical second-half response, with three goals in a five-minute spell flipping the match decisively in the home side's favour. The home win probability of 28 per cent made this a clear upset according to the model's pre-match read.
Antony Chere opened the scoring for Libertad in the 22nd minute, finishing after being set up by S. Castro. That lead held until the interval, but Aucas struck swiftly after the restart. Snayder Porozo levelled in the 47th minute, scoring from a delivery by E. Preciado, and the visitors then took control when R. Quinonez scored in the 67th minute, with Porozo providing the assist. That 2-1 lead lasted only three minutes, however.
Libertad equalised in the 70th minute through J. Guisamano, assisted by G. J. Cortez Casierra. Then, with the momentum fully in their favour, Gabriel Cortez Casierra scored the winning goal in the 75th minute, unassisted. The home side scored three times in a five-minute window just after the hour mark, a spell that proved decisive. Aucas had no further response and were reduced to chasing the game, picking up yellow cards for S. Tapiero in the 73rd minute and R. Bolanos in the 85th. Libertad also received two yellow cards, for B. Caicedo in the 35th minute and for Gabriel Cortez Casierra in the 77th minute, showing the contest remained physical throughout.
The statistical picture, based on the available data, shows a match of clear phases. Aucas, according to the Lemeister model, were the pre-match favourites, but the final scoreline reflects Libertad's superior finishing in the key moments. The home side managed two more substitutions than Aucas, four to two, which may have helped them sustain their energy during the decisive spell. The player ratings underline the individual contributions that swung the match. Both Jawer Guisamano and Gabriel Cortez were awarded a match rating of 8.3 for Libertad, the joint highest on the field. Winger Ayrton Preciado and defender Snayder Porozo each earned 7.5 for Aucas, while Antony Chere of Libertad was rated 7.3 and John Ontaneda of Aucas received 7.2. The ratings for Guisamano and Cortez reflect their direct involvement in the winning goals, with Guisamano scoring the equaliser and Cortez netting the winner before being booked for his celebration.
The model had projected a home win probability of only 28 per cent, making this result a clear upset. Libertad's ability to recover from a deficit and score three times in rapid succession was the determining factor, supported by the high ratings for Guisamano and Cortez. For Aucas, the defeat will be a setback in their standing, having been in a strong position to take points from the match after Quinonez's goal gave them a second-half lead. The result shifts the dynamic in the regular season, with Libertad gaining valuable momentum from this unexpected victory in Loja, while Aucas will need to regroup after failing to hold a lead created by their own positive play in the early stages of the second half. The pattern of the match, with Aucas dominating the opening of each half before Libertad responded, suggests the home side's resilience was the key factor in a contest that defied the Lemeister model's pre-match forecast.
