Neftchi v Navbahor

Neftchi meet Navbahor in the Super League regular season - 14 at Istiqlol Stadium, Fergana. The model makes Neftchi the most likely outcome at 47%, with the full read 47% NEF, 30% draw, 23% NAV.

Neftchi rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1710 to 1516. Recent form leans Neftchi, 76% against 53%. Attacking output favors Neftchi on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.1 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 37%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Neftchi at 67%; double chance reads Neftchi or draw 77%, Navbahor or draw 53%.

Neftchi arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 12 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 @ Sogdiana, W 2-1 v Buxoro, L 1-4 @ Zenit, D 0-0 @ Olmaliq.

Navbahor are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Qizilqum, L 2-3 v Olmaliq, D 0-0 @ Nasaf, L 1-2 @ Bunyodkor.

Navbahor hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Navbahor 0-1 Neftchi.

The market prices NEF at 52% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.