Caldas v SC Covilha: the model read
Caldas meet SC Covilha in the Liga 3 relegation group - 9 at Campo da Mata, Caldas da Rainha. The model makes SC Covilha the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 30% CAL, 34% draw, 36% SC .
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans SC Covilha, 45% against 33%. Attacking output favors SC Covilha on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 32%, over 2.5 goals around 24%. Draw no bet leans SC Covilha at 55%; double chance reads Caldas or draw 64%, SC Covilha or draw 70%.
Caldas arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ 1º Dezembro, D 1-1 v SC Covilha, L 0-2 @ Atlético CP, W 2-1 @ Amora.
SC Covilha are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Amora, D 1-1 @ Caldas, L 0-1 @ Lusitano Évora 1911, W 2-1 v Atlético CP.
SC Covilha hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Caldas 1-1 SC Covilha.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
