Grindavik v Leiknir R.

Grindavik meet Leiknir R. in the 1. Deild regular season - 16. The model makes Leiknir R. the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 32% GRI, 31% draw, 37% LEI.

The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Leiknir R., 53% against 43%. Attacking output favors Leiknir R. on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.0 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 45%, over 2.5 goals around 40%. Draw no bet leans Leiknir R. at 54%; double chance reads Grindavik or draw 63%, Leiknir R. or draw 68%.

Grindavik arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Völsungur, D 0-0 v IR Reykjavik, W 2-1 @ Grotta, L 4-5 @ Njardvik.

Leiknir R. are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 8 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 v Throttur Reykjavik, L 2-3 @ Afturelding, L 0-1 v Grotta, D 3-3 v Völsungur.

Grindavik hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 0 with 4 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Leiknir R. 0-0 Grindavik.

The market prices GRI at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Leiknir R.: a 6.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 67 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.