Where the market is wrong on Flora Tallinn v Paide
Flora Tallinn meet Paide in the Meistriliiga regular season - 25 at A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 55%. Attacking output favors Flora Tallinn on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.4 per match.
Flora Tallinn arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 9 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Tammeka, L 1-2 v Paide, L 1-3 @ Tammeka, W 2-1 @ Vaprus.
Paide are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Flora Tallinn, L 1-4 @ FC Levadia Tallinn, W 4-1 v Nõmme United, D 1-1 @ Trans Narva.
The market prices FLO at 34% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
