Where the market is wrong on Samgurali v Rustavi
Samgurali meet Rustavi in the Erovnuli Liga regular season - 23 at 26 May Stadium, Tsqaltubo.
The baseline ratings are close, 1546 to 1661, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Rustavi, 73% against 55%. Attacking output favors Samgurali on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.
Samgurali arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Rustavi, L 1-2 @ Dila, W 4-3 @ Spaeri, L 0-4 v Dinamo Batumi.
Rustavi are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 11 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Samgurali, W 3-0 v Gagra, W 3-0 @ Dinamo Tbilisi, W 1-0 v Torpedo Kutaisi.
The market prices SAM at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on Rustavi: a 3.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 63 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
