Where the market is wrong on Fram Reykjavik v FH hafnarfjordur
Fram Reykjavik meet FH hafnarfjordur in the Úrvalsdeild regular season - 16. The model makes Fram Reykjavik the most likely outcome at 50%, with the full read 50% FRA, 25% draw, 25% FH .
Fram Reykjavik rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1615 to 1400. Recent form leans Fram Reykjavik, 65% against 35%. Attacking output favors Fram Reykjavik on expected goals, 2.6 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 81%, over 2.5 goals around 93%. Draw no bet leans Fram Reykjavik at 66%; double chance reads Fram Reykjavik or draw 75%, FH hafnarfjordur or draw 50%.
Fram Reykjavik arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 12 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v FH hafnarfjordur, W 3-2 @ Valur Reykjavik, W 6-1 v Thor Akureyri, D 1-1 @ Keflavik.
FH hafnarfjordur are steady: 1W-4D-0L from their last five (7/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Fram Reykjavik, D 0-0 v Breidablik, W 2-0 v Valur Reykjavik, D 2-2 v Stjarnan.
Fram Reykjavik hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Fram Reykjavik 0-0 FH hafnarfjordur.
The market prices FRA at 63% implied. Our number sits apart on FH hafnarfjordur: a 7.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
