Where the market is wrong on Bay FC W v NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Bay FC W meet NJ/NY Gotham FC W in the NWSL Women group stage at PayPal Park, undefined. The model makes NJ/NY Gotham FC W the most likely outcome at 45%, with the full read 25% BAY, 31% draw, 45% NJ/.
NJ/NY Gotham FC W rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1615 to 1408. Recent form leans NJ/NY Gotham FC W, 65% against 35%. Attacking output favors NJ/NY Gotham FC W on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 37%, over 2.5 goals around 41%. Draw no bet leans NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 65%; double chance reads Bay FC W or draw 55%, NJ/NY Gotham FC W or draw 75%.
Bay FC W arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Houston Dash W, W 3-0 v North Carolina Courage W, W 2-0 @ Racing Louisville W, D 2-2 @ Boston Legacy W.
NJ/NY Gotham FC W are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Portland Thorns W, W 3-2 v Seattle Reign FC W, W 1-0 v Washington Spirit W, W 3-1 @ Utah Royals W.
The market prices BAY at 20% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
