Portland Thorns W v NJ/NY Gotham FC W

Portland Thorns W meet NJ/NY Gotham FC W in the NWSL Women group stage at Providence Park, Portland. The model makes NJ/NY Gotham FC W the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 33% POR, 32% draw, 35% NJ/.

The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 65%. Attacking output favors Portland Thorns W on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 46%, over 2.5 goals around 40%. Draw no bet leans NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 52%; double chance reads Portland Thorns W or draw 65%, NJ/NY Gotham FC W or draw 67%.

Portland Thorns W arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v NJ/NY Gotham FC W, L 1-2 @ Denver Summit W, L 0-2 @ Seattle Reign FC W, W 4-0 v Racing Louisville W.

NJ/NY Gotham FC W are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Portland Thorns W, W 3-2 v Seattle Reign FC W, W 1-0 v Washington Spirit W, W 3-1 @ Utah Royals W.

NJ/NY Gotham FC W hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Portland Thorns W 2-2 NJ/NY Gotham FC W.

The market prices POR at 27% implied. Our number sits apart on Portland Thorns W: a 5.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.