Where the market is wrong on Orlando Pride W v Chicago Red Stars W
Orlando Pride W meet Chicago Red Stars W in the NWSL Women group stage at Inter&Co Stadium, Orlando. The model makes Orlando Pride W the most likely outcome at 47%, with the full read 47% ORL, 30% draw, 23% CHI.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Orlando Pride W, 48% against 30%. Attacking output favors Orlando Pride W on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 36%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Orlando Pride W at 67%; double chance reads Orlando Pride W or draw 77%, Chicago Red Stars W or draw 53%.
Orlando Pride W arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Chicago Red Stars W, L 0-1 @ Utah Royals W, L 0-1 v Boston Legacy W, W 3-0 v Kansas City W.
Chicago Red Stars W are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 3 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Orlando Pride W, L 0-2 v Angel City W, L 0-2 @ Boston Legacy W, W 3-2 v Utah Royals W.
Orlando Pride W hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Orlando Pride W 1-0 Chicago Red Stars W.
The market prices ORL at 64% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 9.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
