Where the market is wrong on Vasalund v Sollentuna
Vasalund meet Sollentuna in the Ettan - Norra norra - 15 at Skytteholms IP, Solna. The model makes Sollentuna the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 35% VAS, 30% draw, 35% SOL.
The baseline ratings are close, 1468 to 1407, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 39%. Attacking output favors Vasalund on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 57%, over 2.5 goals around 54%. Draw no bet leans Sollentuna at 51%; double chance reads Vasalund or draw 65%, Sollentuna or draw 65%.
Vasalund arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Assyriska FF, L 0-4 v Karlberg, D 1-1 @ Enköping, L 1-4 @ Stockholm Internazionale.
Sollentuna are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 6 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Stocksund, L 1-2 v Karlberg, L 1-4 v AFC Eskilstuna, L 0-2 v FBK Karlstad.
The recent head-to-head is even, 4 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Vasalund 1-2 Sollentuna.
The market prices VAS at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on Sollentuna: a 8.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 71 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
