Sportivo Barracas led by two goals at half-time but were overhauled by Yupanqui in a 3-2 defeat in Primera C's Regular Season round 18. The numbers show a contest that turned entirely on Yupanqui's superiority after the interval. Yupanqui scored three unanswered goals in the second half, two of them from A. Melono, to claim a victory that the data suggested was slightly more probable than a home win or a draw. The Lemeister model had given Yupanqui a 36 per cent chance of winning, marginally the highest of the three possible outcomes.
The opening goal came early, in the seventh minute, when T. Di Criscenzo scored for Sportivo Barracas. The home side doubled their advantage just before half-time, M. Romay finding the net in the 45th minute. At that stage Sportivo Barracas appeared in control, holding a two-goal cushion and facing an opponent that had failed to trouble the scorers in the first period.
Yupanqui's revival began 11 minutes into the second half. S. Colangelo scored a normal goal in the 56th minute to reduce the deficit to 2-1. Seven minutes later, in the 63rd minute, A. Melono converted a penalty to draw Yupanqui level. Melono then completed the turnaround with a second goal in the 73rd minute, this time a normal goal, putting the visitors ahead for the first time. The goal sequence was decisive and came from sustained pressure rather than speculative attempts.
The match was not without further incident. In the 91st minute, Yupanqui's S. Colangelo received a red card, reducing the visitors to 10 men for the closing stages. Despite the numerical disadvantage, Yupanqui held on to their lead. Sportivo Barracas were unable to generate a response in stoppage time.
Possession and chance creation data are not available in this report, but the goals timeline tells a clear story. Sportivo Barracas had the better of the first half, scoring twice without reply. Yupanqui responded with three goals in a 17-minute spell early in the second period, including a penalty that changed the momentum. The home team could not reclaim control after that spell.
The result places Yupanqui's resilience and finishing ability above Sportivo Barracas's first-half performance. The Lemeister model had projected a 1-0 away win, indicating that Yupanqui's victory was within the expected range but that the manner of it -- coming from two goals down -- was more emphatic than the model's narrow margin suggested. For Sportivo Barracas, the failure to protect a two-goal lead at home will be a source of concern, especially given the lack of a defensive response after Yupanqui's equaliser.
In the context of the Primera C regular season, this result gives Yupanqui a valuable away victory that lifts them clear of a mid-table logjam, while Sportivo Barracas drop points that could harm their push toward the promotion play-off positions. The loss of S. Colangelo to a red card is a minor blemish for Yupanqui, but it came after the win was effectively secured. The match was decided by a quickfire second-half turnaround that left Sportivo Barracas with no answer and Yupanqui with three points on the road.
