Comunicaciones overturned an early deficit to claim a 2-1 victory over Excursionistas at the Excursionistas Stadium, a result that defied the pre-match expectations set by the Lemeister model. The visitors struck twice, once in each half, to turn the match around after falling behind midway through the first period. The Lemeister model had given Excursionistas a 38 per cent chance of victory compared to 29 per cent for Comunicaciones, projecting a narrow 1-0 home win, but the away side’s clinical finishing and combative approach proved decisive.
The opening goal arrived in the 26th minute when A. Avalos put Excursionistas ahead with a normal goal. The home side had seized the initiative, but their advantage was short-lived. Just five minutes later, in the 31st minute, J. Ibanez equalised for Comunicaciones, restoring parity before the interval. The match remained tightly contested for the majority of the second half, with neither side able to find a breakthrough until the final minute of normal time. In the 90th minute, I. Carruega struck the winner for the visitors, completing the turnaround and condemning Excursionistas to a frustrating home defeat.
The match was characterised by a high number of bookings, with Comunicaciones accumulating five yellow cards. G. Jaque was cautioned in the 30th minute, L. Vico in the 46th, C. Puigdellivol in the 81st, E. Bacher in the 91st, and M. Arango received his yellow in the 93rd minute. For Excursionistas, one booking was shown in the 34th minute to an unnamed player. The volume of yellow cards for the visitors indicates a willingness to disrupt the opposition’s rhythm and protect their lead in the closing stages. The home side made five substitutions compared to two by Comunicaciones, reflecting a greater desire to alter the flow of the contest after falling behind.
Without detailed shot or possession data, the narrative is necessarily shaped by timing and discipline. Excursionistas struck first and might have expected to build on that momentum, but they were unable to maintain their advantage for more than five minutes. Comunicaciones responded almost immediately and then held their nerve until the final minute, when Carruega delivered the decisive blow. The visitors’ five yellow cards suggest a combative approach that disrupted the home side’s attacking flow, and that approach ultimately yielded the three points. The home side, despite their earlier control, were unable to convert their advantage into a victory.
In the context of the Primera B Metropolitana regular season, this result is a valuable away victory for Comunicaciones. Taking points on the road, particularly after falling behind, strengthens their position in the standings and builds momentum for the run-in. For Excursionistas, the inability to protect a first-half lead at home will be a source of frustration, especially given their status as pre-match favourites according to the Lemeister model. The result serves as a reminder that efficiency in front of goal and discipline under pressure can outweigh pre-match projections, and both sides will take different lessons from this encounter as the season progresses.
