Where the market is wrong on Chacarita Juniors v Club Atlético Güemes
Chacarita Juniors meet Club Atlético Güemes in the Primera Nacional regular season - 21 at Estadio de Chacarita Juniors, Buenos Aires. The model makes Chacarita Juniors the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 36% CHA, 34% draw, 30% CLU.
The baseline ratings are close, 1456 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 42% against 37%. Attacking output favors Club Atlético Güemes on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 32%, over 2.5 goals around 24%. Draw no bet leans Chacarita Juniors at 55%; double chance reads Chacarita Juniors or draw 70%, Club Atlético Güemes or draw 64%.
Chacarita Juniors arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 2 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Gimnasia Jujuy, W 1-0 @ San Martin S.J., D 0-0 v Tristan Suarez, L 0-2 @ Nueva Chicago.
Club Atlético Güemes are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 3 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v San Martin S.J., L 0-2 @ Nueva Chicago, L 1-3 v Gimnasia Jujuy, L 1-4 @ Temperley.
The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Club Atlético Güemes 2-1 Chacarita Juniors.
The market prices CHA at 47% implied. Our number sits apart on Club Atlético Güemes: a 9.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
