Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Sharjah FC

Sharjah FC won the Super Cup final 3-2 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at Al Rashid Stadium, overturning the pre-match forecast from the Lemeister model, which had given Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 43 per cent win probability and projected a 2-1 home victory. The outcome was decided by a combative second-half winner from O. Camara and a string of late cautions that left Sharjah holding on despite playing the final 25 minutes with 10 men. The scoring began inside three minutes when F. Cartabia converted a penalty to give Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the early lead. Sharjah responded in the 26th minute through a spot-kick of their own, Caio Lucas levelling from 12 yards. Three minutes later, Luan Pereira put Sharjah ahead with a normal goal after Caio Lucas provided the assist. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai equalised in the 37th minute when Breno finished from a Yuri Cesar assist, and the sides went into the interval level after a first half dominated by penalties and errors in defensive concentration.

The vital blow came in the 78th minute. Cho Yu-Min provided the assist for O. Camara, whose normal goal restored Sharjah’s advantage and ultimately proved decisive. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai could not find a reply in the remaining time. The final stages were fractured by discipline breakdowns from Sharjah. Khaled Ebraheim, M. Meloni, Igor Coronado, M. Rashid and O. Camara all received yellow cards, while S. Abdulrahman was sent off in the 84th minute for a second bookable offence. The imbalance in composure was reflected in the card count, with eight yellows and one red for Sharjah against two yellows for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Despite the numerical disadvantage, Sharjah’s defensive organisation held firm in the closing minutes and stoppage time.

The result means Sharjah win the Super Cup after a match that saw five goals and three separate lead changes. The Lemeister model had favoured Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, but Sharjah’s efficiency in the final third and resilience under pressure proved decisive. With the first half shared at two apiece, the second half belonged to Sharjah’s single moment of quality from Camara. The lack of statistical data for possession, shots, expected goals, passing, corners, and player match ratings means the tactical picture cannot be fully reconstructed from these facts. However, the sequence of goals and cards alone suggests a contest of high emotion, rapid transitions, and significant defensive vulnerability on both sides, with Sharjah ultimately showing greater ruthlessness when it mattered most. The victory hands Sharjah silverware in the opening fixture of the domestic season and sets a benchmark for the campaign ahead. The winning margin of one goal aligns with the narrow projection from the Lemeister model, though the result reversed the expected outcome. Sharjah’s ability to absorb pressure after the sending-off, combined with their clinical finishing across three distinct phases of the match, demonstrated the composure required to lift the trophy. For Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, the early penalty and a third-minute lead could not be sustained, and the defensive lapses that allowed Sharjah to equalise twice and then take the lead for the final time at the three-quarter mark will be the focus of their post-match review without attribution. The Super Cup final provided an intense start to the season, and the data, limited as it is by available statistics, points to a match decided by Sharjah’s capacity to score at critical moments and manage the game under extreme disciplinary pressure.