Where the market is wrong on Mariehamn v AC Oulu
Mariehamn meet AC Oulu in the Veikkausliiga regular season - 17 at Wiklof Holding Arena, Mariehamn. The model makes AC Oulu the most likely outcome at 44%, with the full read 26% MAR, 30% draw, 44% AC .
AC Oulu rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1535 to 1400. Recent form leans AC Oulu, 53% against 25%. Attacking output favors AC Oulu on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 47%, over 2.5 goals around 50%. Draw no bet leans AC Oulu at 62%; double chance reads Mariehamn or draw 56%, AC Oulu or draw 74%.
Mariehamn arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 3 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v AC Oulu, L 0-2 v Lahti, L 2-4 @ Gnistan, L 0-4 @ VPS.
AC Oulu are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 3 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Mariehamn, L 0-2 v Gnistan, L 0-3 @ Turku PS, D 1-1 v Lahti.
The recent head-to-head is even, 4 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Mariehamn 1-1 AC Oulu.
The market prices MAR at 15% implied. Our number sits apart on Mariehamn: a 11.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
