Where the market is wrong on Naples v Union Omaha
Naples meet Union Omaha in the USL League One group stage at Paradise Coast Sports Complex, undefined.
Union Omaha rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1604 to 1400. Recent form leans Union Omaha, 63% against 25%. Attacking output favors Union Omaha on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 61%, over 2.5 goals around 79%. Draw no bet leans Union Omaha at 69%; double chance reads Naples or draw 49%, Union Omaha or draw 77%.
Naples arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Union Omaha, W 2-1 @ Alta, L 2-3 @ Westchester SC, W 2-1 v Alta.
Union Omaha are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 11 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Naples, D 1-1 v Sarasota Paradise, W 5-1 v Richmond Kickers, W 3-1 @ Chattanooga Red Wolves.
The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece with 1 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Naples 2-0 Union Omaha.
The market prices NAP at 28% implied. Our number sits apart on Union Omaha: a 5.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 68 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
