Sarasota Paradise v Naples: the model read
Sarasota Paradise meet Naples in the USL League One group stage at Premier Sports Campus, undefined. The model makes Sarasota Paradise the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 35% SAR, 31% draw, 34% NAP.
The baseline ratings are close, 1432 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Sarasota Paradise, 37% against 25%. Attacking output favors Naples on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 47%, over 2.5 goals around 41%. Draw no bet leans Sarasota Paradise at 51%; double chance reads Sarasota Paradise or draw 66%, Naples or draw 65%.
Sarasota Paradise arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 3 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Portland Hearts of Pine, L 0-5 v Miami FC, D 0-0 @ Greenville Triumph, D 0-0 @ Richmond Kickers.
Naples are out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 3 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Forward Madison, L 0-2 @ Tampa Bay Rowdies, L 0-1 @ NY Cosmos, L 2-3 v Portland Hearts of Pine.
Naples hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Naples 0-2 Sarasota Paradise.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
