Chattanooga Red Wolves v One Knoxville

Chattanooga Red Wolves meet One Knoxville in the USL League One group stage at CHI Memorial Stadium, undefined. The model makes One Knoxville the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 34% CHA, 30% draw, 36% ONE.

The baseline ratings are close, 1516 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 57%. Attacking output favors One Knoxville on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.5 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 51%. Draw no bet leans One Knoxville at 51%; double chance reads Chattanooga Red Wolves or draw 64%, One Knoxville or draw 66%.

Chattanooga Red Wolves arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v One Knoxville, W 4-2 @ Charlotte Independence, W 1-0 v Alta, L 0-2 @ San Antonio.

One Knoxville are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Chattanooga Red Wolves, L 2-3 v Alta, W 2-1 v Fort Wayne, D 1-1 @ Corpus Christi.

Chattanooga Red Wolves hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Chattanooga Red Wolves 1-0 One Knoxville.

The market prices CHA at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on One Knoxville: a 6.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 66 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.