Independiente v Newells Old Boys

Independiente meet Newells Old Boys in the Liga Profesional Argentina clausura - 2. The model makes Independiente the most likely outcome at 45%, with the full read 45% IND, 30% draw, 26% NEW.

Independiente rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1569 to 1431. Recent form leans Independiente, 60% against 40%. Attacking output favors Independiente on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.9 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 46%, over 2.5 goals around 52%. Draw no bet leans Independiente at 64%; double chance reads Independiente or draw 74%, Newells Old Boys or draw 55%.

Independiente arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Estudiantes L.P., W 2-0 @ Union Santa Fe, L 1-3 @ Rosario Central, W 2-1 @ San Lorenzo.

Newells Old Boys are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Talleres Cordoba, D 1-1 @ Velez Sarsfield, D 1-1 v Instituto Cordoba, W 3-2 @ Union Santa Fe.

Newells Old Boys hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Newells Old Boys 1-1 Independiente.

The market prices IND at 56% implied. Our number sits apart on Newells Old Boys: a 8.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.